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Construction sector

VIN

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Kho vận Ngoại thương Việt Nam
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT
18.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
15.452
Current
18.600
Gap
-16.9%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
94.74%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.80%
x
D/(D+E)
5.26%
=
WACC
11.97%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
50%DCF Value
15.452
Blended Intrinsic
15.452
Value Decomposition
42%
58%
Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VIN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

42
Weak
Accrual Quality
89
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

1.52
High Risk
DSRI
0.279
GMI
5.404
AQI
0.837
SGI
2.975
DEPI
5.426
SGAI
0.452
TATA
0.027
LVGI
1.264

The Beneish M-Score of 1.5203 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation, particularly given that it exceeds the threshold of -1.78. Coupled with a low earnings quality score of 42.3, the financial health of VIN appears concerning, especially in the context of its high dependency on institutional ownership.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 1.5203 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 42.3/100 reflects poor earnings quality, particularly highlighted by an eq_cash_conv score of 0.0/100.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 0.2786 suggests that accounts receivable are well managed relative to sales, indicating potential operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming institutional ownership of 95.4% by Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam raises concerns about governance and potential lack of accountability, as minority shareholders have minimal influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VIN's financial disclosures and governance practices, considering a wait-and-see approach before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
10.73
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.26
Negative
Composite
33
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-6.2%
Volatility
82.5%
Max Drawdown
-38.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
32.32P/E
P/B0.67
P/S0.77
ROE2.1%
ROA2.0%
EPS457.92
BVPS22097.52
Gross Margin2.5%
Net Margin2.4%
D/E0.06
Current Ratio8.09
Rev Growth197.5%
Profit Growth-60.0%
EV/EBITDA-10.71
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
25.5M
Charter Capital
255.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Vận tải
Sub-industry
Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VIN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Thép Việt Nam
Inst
95.4%
24.3 trieu
Board & Management
Lê Hoàng Như Uyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thanh Tòng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Văn Thị Thu Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Thị Bình Nguyên
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Cao Thị Mỹ Trang
Kế toán trưởng
Lê Thị Thu Hiền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thành Đô
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Thanh Bình
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Trọng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Bảo Trọng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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